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Tropical Storm Dora Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023
300 AM MDT Tue Aug 01 2023
Deep convection has increased near the estimated center of the
tropical cyclone, but convective banding features are not yet well
defined. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and
SAB are now at 35 kt and data from a recent scatterometer overpass
also supports tropical storm strength. Thus the system is being
named, making it the fourth tropical storm of this rather
slow-starting eastern North Pacific hurricane season. Dora is a
fairly compact system, with tropical-storm-force winds
extending 40 n mi or less from the center.
The storm's motion is a slightly faster 290/14 kt. The mid-level
subtropical ridge that is currently to the north of Dora is
forecast by the global models to build westward over the next
several days. This should cause the tropical storm or hurricane to
turn westward to west-southwestward during the next 24 to 60 hours.
Later in the forecast period, Dora should move generally westward
on the south side of the subtropical high. The official forecast
is slightly faster than the previous one but not quite as fast as
the latest corrected consensus, HCCA, track guidance.
Dora is expected to be in an atmospheric and oceanic environment
that will be quite conducive for intensification during the next 72
hours or so. A large upper-tropospheric anticyclone should
dominate the area, leading to low vertical shear. This, along
with SSTs of 28-29 deg C, and a fairly moist mid-level air mass
should result in significant strengthening of the cyclone. The
SHIPS Rapid Intensification (RI) guidance shows a greater than
normal likelihood of RI, but it is difficult to specify when this
may occur. The official forecast calls, perhaps conservatively,
for Dora to approach major hurricane status later in the week.
This prediction is a blend of the corrected and simple intensity
model consensus guidance, IVCN and HCCA. The regional hurricane
models, HAFS and HWRF, indicate that Dora could be stronger than
shown here.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/0900Z 16.0N 107.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 16.2N 109.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 16.1N 112.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 15.8N 114.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 15.3N 117.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 03/1800Z 14.7N 120.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 14.2N 123.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 13.3N 129.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 06/0600Z 13.0N 135.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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