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Tropical Storm Dora Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052023
300 AM MDT Tue Aug 01 2023

Deep convection has increased near the estimated center of the 
tropical cyclone, but convective banding features are not yet well 
defined.  Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and 
SAB are now at 35 kt and data from a recent scatterometer overpass 
also supports tropical storm strength.  Thus the system is being 
named, making it the fourth tropical storm of this rather 
slow-starting eastern North Pacific hurricane season.  Dora is a 
fairly compact system, with tropical-storm-force winds 
extending 40 n mi or less from the center.

The storm's motion is a slightly faster 290/14 kt.  The mid-level 
subtropical ridge that is currently to the north of Dora is 
forecast by the global models to build westward over the next 
several days.  This should cause the tropical storm or hurricane to 
turn westward to west-southwestward during the next 24 to 60 hours. 
Later in the forecast period, Dora should move generally westward 
on the south side of the subtropical high.  The official forecast 
is slightly faster than the previous one but not quite as fast as 
the latest corrected consensus, HCCA, track guidance.

Dora is expected to be in an atmospheric and oceanic environment 
that will be quite conducive for intensification during the next 72 
hours or so.  A large upper-tropospheric anticyclone should 
dominate the area, leading to low vertical shear.  This, along 
with SSTs of 28-29 deg C, and a fairly moist mid-level air mass 
should result in significant strengthening of the cyclone.  The 
SHIPS Rapid Intensification (RI) guidance shows a greater than 
normal likelihood of RI, but it is difficult to specify when this 
may occur.  The official forecast calls, perhaps conservatively, 
for Dora to approach major hurricane status later in the week.  
This prediction is a blend of the corrected and simple intensity 
model consensus guidance, IVCN and HCCA.  The regional hurricane 
models, HAFS and HWRF, indicate that Dora could be stronger than 
shown here.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/0900Z 16.0N 107.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  01/1800Z 16.2N 109.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  02/0600Z 16.1N 112.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  02/1800Z 15.8N 114.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  03/0600Z 15.3N 117.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  03/1800Z 14.7N 120.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  04/0600Z 14.2N 123.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  05/0600Z 13.3N 129.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  06/0600Z 13.0N 135.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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