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Hurricane Orlene Special Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022
600 PM MDT Sat Oct 01 2022
The satellite presentation of Orlene has quickly improved during the
past several hours. A warm and well-defined eye has emerged in
GOES-17 satellite imagery, surrounded by a solid ring of deep
convection with infrared cloud tops colder than -70 degrees Celsius.
The initial intensity is set at 90 kt for this advisory based on
recent satellite intensity estimates.
Based on the higher initial intensity, the near-term intensity
forecast has been raised to show additional strengthening in the
next 12-24 h while environmental conditions remain conducive for
intensification. No changes were made to the track forecast with
this special advisory.
1. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Islas Marias Sunday
night, with tropical storm conditions beginning late Sunday.
Hurricane conditions are possible over portions of west-central
mainland Mexico starting on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected within the tropical storm warning area along the
west-central coast of Mexico on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions
are possible over other portions of southwestern and west-central
Mexico in the tropical storm watch area tonight or Sunday.
2. Heavy rainfall from Orlene is expected to lead to flash flooding,
as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain of
southwest Mexico into Monday evening.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/0000Z 18.2N 107.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 18.6N 107.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 19.7N 106.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 20.9N 106.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 22.1N 106.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 04/0600Z 23.1N 105.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 04/1800Z 24.1N 105.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND