ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Orlene Special Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022 600 PM MDT Sat Oct 01 2022 The satellite presentation of Orlene has quickly improved during the past several hours. A warm and well-defined eye has emerged in GOES-17 satellite imagery, surrounded by a solid ring of deep convection with infrared cloud tops colder than -70 degrees Celsius. The initial intensity is set at 90 kt for this advisory based on recent satellite intensity estimates. Based on the higher initial intensity, the near-term intensity forecast has been raised to show additional strengthening in the next 12-24 h while environmental conditions remain conducive for intensification. No changes were made to the track forecast with this special advisory. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Islas Marias Sunday night, with tropical storm conditions beginning late Sunday. Hurricane conditions are possible over portions of west-central mainland Mexico starting on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area along the west-central coast of Mexico on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible over other portions of southwestern and west-central Mexico in the tropical storm watch area tonight or Sunday. 2. Heavy rainfall from Orlene is expected to lead to flash flooding, as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain of southwest Mexico into Monday evening. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0000Z 18.2N 107.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 18.6N 107.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 19.7N 106.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 20.9N 106.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 22.1N 106.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 04/0600Z 23.1N 105.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 72H 04/1800Z 24.1N 105.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Saturday, 31-Dec-2022 12:10:17 UTC