ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Storm Lester Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132022
400 AM CDT Sat Sep 17 2022
Lester has become slightly better organized overnight. Deep
convection has continuously pulsed west and southwest (in the
downshear quadrants) of the estimated low-level circulation through
the night with cloud top temperatures below -80 degrees C.
Subjective and objective Dvorak classifications range between 35-45
kt and the initial intensity has been increased to 40 kt to
represent a blend of these estimates.
The storm is moving northwestward at about 9 kt in the southeasterly
flow between a cyclonic gyre to the west and a mid-level ridge
centered over Texas and northern Mexico. This general motion is
expected to continue until landfall. The official forecast track
has changed little from the previous advisory. The center of
Lester is expected to reach the coast of Mexico later this afternoon
or evening and then dissipate as it moves inland on Sunday.
Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are expected to remain the same
until the storm moves inland. Lester is over very warm waters and
surrounded by high environmental moisture. However, the storm
continues to experience moderate northeasterly shear that should
persist until landfall. Combined, these factors will likely allow
for some slight strengthening. The NHC forecast still shows a peak
of 45 kt as Lester reaches the coast. The cyclone should rapidly
weaken over the high terrain shortly thereafter and dissipate within
a couple of days.
Key Messages:
1. Heavy rains from Lester will continue for portions of coastal
southern Mexico into Sunday. This rainfall may produce flash and
urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher
coastal terrain.
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread along the coast
of southwestern Mexico today within the Tropical Storm Warning area.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/0900Z 15.4N 98.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 16.7N 99.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 18.1N 101.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 18/1800Z 19.6N 102.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Bucci
NNNN