ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Lester Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132022 400 AM CDT Sat Sep 17 2022 Lester has become slightly better organized overnight. Deep convection has continuously pulsed west and southwest (in the downshear quadrants) of the estimated low-level circulation through the night with cloud top temperatures below -80 degrees C. Subjective and objective Dvorak classifications range between 35-45 kt and the initial intensity has been increased to 40 kt to represent a blend of these estimates. The storm is moving northwestward at about 9 kt in the southeasterly flow between a cyclonic gyre to the west and a mid-level ridge centered over Texas and northern Mexico. This general motion is expected to continue until landfall. The official forecast track has changed little from the previous advisory. The center of Lester is expected to reach the coast of Mexico later this afternoon or evening and then dissipate as it moves inland on Sunday. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are expected to remain the same until the storm moves inland. Lester is over very warm waters and surrounded by high environmental moisture. However, the storm continues to experience moderate northeasterly shear that should persist until landfall. Combined, these factors will likely allow for some slight strengthening. The NHC forecast still shows a peak of 45 kt as Lester reaches the coast. The cyclone should rapidly weaken over the high terrain shortly thereafter and dissipate within a couple of days. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rains from Lester will continue for portions of coastal southern Mexico into Sunday. This rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher coastal terrain. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread along the coast of southwestern Mexico today within the Tropical Storm Warning area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 15.4N 98.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 16.7N 99.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 18.1N 101.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 18/1800Z 19.6N 102.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 31-Dec-2022 12:10:13 UTC