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Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132022
1000 PM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022
Satellite imagery indicates little change in the organization of
Tropical Depression Thirteen-E, with the convection continuing in
loosely organized bands displaced to the west and southwest of the
low-level center due to northeasterly vertical wind shear.
Satellite intensity estimates are in the 25-30 kt range, and based
on that data, the initial intensity remains 30 kt.
The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 315/3. The depression is
forecast to move generally northwestward during the next 2-3 days
around the eastern portion of monsoonal flow that is established
over the eastern Pacific south of Mexico. As this flow strengthens
during the next day or so, the depression should move at a faster
forward speed, with the center forecast to move near or over the
coast of Mexico Saturday or Saturday night. There has been little
change in the track guidance since the last advisory, and the new
forecast track is very similar to the previous track.
Moderate northeasterly shear should continue to affect the cyclone
during the time it is over water, and thus only gradual
intensification is expected. The new intensity forecast calls for
the depression to become a tropical storm late tonight or on
Friday, and shows continued gradual strengthening until landfall on
the coast of Mexico. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall,
and the cyclone should dissipate over the mountains of Mexico by 72
h. The new intensity forecast has only minor adjustments from the
previous forecast.
Key Messages:
1. Heavy rains from Tropical Depression Thirteen-E will reach
portions of coastal southern Mexico on Friday, increasing in
coverage and intensity by Saturday and Saturday night. This
rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding, along with isolated
mudslides in areas of higher terrain.
2. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast of
southern Mexico between Laguna de Chacahua and Zihautenajo beginning
on Saturday and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for that
area.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/0300Z 12.8N 95.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 13.4N 96.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 14.4N 97.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 15.7N 99.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 17.3N 100.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
60H 18/1200Z 19.0N 102.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Beven
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