ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132022 1000 PM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022 Satellite imagery indicates little change in the organization of Tropical Depression Thirteen-E, with the convection continuing in loosely organized bands displaced to the west and southwest of the low-level center due to northeasterly vertical wind shear. Satellite intensity estimates are in the 25-30 kt range, and based on that data, the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 315/3. The depression is forecast to move generally northwestward during the next 2-3 days around the eastern portion of monsoonal flow that is established over the eastern Pacific south of Mexico. As this flow strengthens during the next day or so, the depression should move at a faster forward speed, with the center forecast to move near or over the coast of Mexico Saturday or Saturday night. There has been little change in the track guidance since the last advisory, and the new forecast track is very similar to the previous track. Moderate northeasterly shear should continue to affect the cyclone during the time it is over water, and thus only gradual intensification is expected. The new intensity forecast calls for the depression to become a tropical storm late tonight or on Friday, and shows continued gradual strengthening until landfall on the coast of Mexico. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall, and the cyclone should dissipate over the mountains of Mexico by 72 h. The new intensity forecast has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rains from Tropical Depression Thirteen-E will reach portions of coastal southern Mexico on Friday, increasing in coverage and intensity by Saturday and Saturday night. This rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding, along with isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast of southern Mexico between Laguna de Chacahua and Zihautenajo beginning on Saturday and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for that area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 12.8N 95.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 13.4N 96.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 14.4N 97.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 15.7N 99.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 17.3N 100.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 60H 18/1200Z 19.0N 102.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven NNNN
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