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Tropical Depression Twelve-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
1000 AM CDT Sun Sep 04 2022
Satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure located a
couple of hundred miles south of southwestern Mexico has developed
sufficently organized deep convection and a well-defined center to
be classified a tropical depression. Thunderstorm activity, with a
significant amount of lightning, is strongest in a band on the
system's west side. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on
a Dvorak estimate from TAFB. It should also be noted there are
likely strong wind gusts to the north of the center where winds
typically accelerate in these situations near the coast of Mexico.
The initial motion is estimated to be 280/9 kt, but this is somewhat
uncertain since the system just formed. This general motion is
expected to continue for the next couple of days, keeping the core
of the system south of the coast of southwestern Mexico during that
time. Thereafter, the models all show a turn to the northwest and
then the north. Although the models agree on this turn, there is
some spread on where and how sharply the system recurves. The GFS
and ECMWF ensemble spreads show solutions as far east as the Gulf of
California and as far west as a few hundred miles west of the Baja
California peninsula. The NHC track forecast follows the consensus
models, which takes the system very near the Baja peninsula in 4 to
5 days.
Overall, the environmental factors appear conducive for the
depression to intensify during the next few days with the shear
remaining low to moderate in strength, mid-level moisture very high,
and SSTs sufficently warm. However, the large size of the system
and lack of an inner core should limit rapid intensification in the
short term. The intensity guidance show at least steady
strengthening during the next 72 hours followed by some weakening
toward the end of the forecast period due to cooler SSTs. The NHC
intensity forecast is close to the IVCN guidance, and shows the
system becoming a tropical storm later today and a significant
hurricane near Baja in a few days.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Although the depression is expected to stay offshore, heavy
rainfall could lead to localized flash flooding in portions of
southwestern Mexico.
2. Interests in the Baja California peninsula should closely
monitor the depression as tropical storm or hurricane watches could
be required tonight.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/1500Z 14.0N 101.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 14.3N 103.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 14.6N 105.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 15.3N 106.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 16.3N 108.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 07/0000Z 17.8N 110.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 19.6N 111.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 23.6N 112.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 09/1200Z 27.3N 114.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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