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Tropical Depression Twelve-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122022
1000 AM CDT Sun Sep 04 2022

Satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure located a 
couple of hundred miles south of southwestern Mexico has developed 
sufficently organized deep convection and a well-defined center to 
be classified a tropical depression.  Thunderstorm activity, with a 
significant amount of lightning, is strongest in a band on the 
system's west side.  The initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on 
a Dvorak estimate from TAFB.  It should also be noted there are 
likely strong wind gusts to the north of the center where winds 
typically accelerate in these situations near the coast of Mexico.

The initial motion is estimated to be 280/9 kt, but this is somewhat 
uncertain since the system just formed.  This general motion is 
expected to continue for the next couple of days, keeping the core 
of the system south of the coast of southwestern Mexico during that 
time.  Thereafter, the models all show a turn to the northwest and 
then the north.  Although the models agree on this turn, there is 
some spread on where and how sharply the system recurves.  The GFS 
and ECMWF ensemble spreads show solutions as far east as the Gulf of 
California and as far west as a few hundred miles west of the Baja 
California peninsula.  The NHC track forecast follows the consensus 
models, which takes the system very near the Baja peninsula in 4 to 
5 days. 

Overall, the environmental factors appear conducive for the 
depression to intensify during the next few days with the shear 
remaining low to moderate in strength, mid-level moisture very high, 
and SSTs sufficently warm.  However, the large size of the system 
and lack of an inner core should limit rapid intensification in the 
short term.  The intensity guidance show at least steady 
strengthening during the next 72 hours followed by some weakening 
toward the end of the forecast period due to cooler SSTs.  The NHC 
intensity forecast is close to the IVCN guidance, and shows the 
system becoming a tropical storm later today and a significant 
hurricane near Baja in a few days.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Although the depression is expected to stay offshore, heavy 
rainfall could lead to localized flash flooding in portions of 
southwestern Mexico.

2. Interests in the Baja California peninsula should closely 
monitor the depression as tropical storm or hurricane watches could 
be required tonight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/1500Z 14.0N 101.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  05/0000Z 14.3N 103.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  05/1200Z 14.6N 105.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  06/0000Z 15.3N 106.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  06/1200Z 16.3N 108.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  07/0000Z 17.8N 110.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  07/1200Z 19.6N 111.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  08/1200Z 23.6N 112.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  09/1200Z 27.3N 114.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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