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Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102022
300 PM MDT Sat Aug 13 2022
Recent scatterometer data indicated that the circulation associated
with the low pressure area that NHC has been tracking over the
previous few days has become better defined within the past 24
hours. Although convection is limited to the western portion of
the circulation, the system has had sufficient organized and
persistent thunderstorm activity to be classified as a tropical
depression. The initial wind speed is set at 30 kt and is based on
a blend of the satellite-derived surface wind speeds and the Dvorak
classifications from SAB and TAFB.
The depression is not expected to strengthen and be a rather
short-lived tropical cyclone. The system is currently within an
area of modest northeasterly shear and the upper-level winds are
forecast to increase within the next 24 hours. Although the
forecast does not explicitly call for the system to become a
tropical storm, it could strengthen slightly within the next 12-24
hours. After that time frame, the vertical wind shear is predicted
to increase and limit any further intensification. The official
forecast shows the depression becoming a remnant low by 48 hours.
The system is moving west-northwestward at 9 kt around the
southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge over northwestern Mexico.
The ridge is forecast to build westward over the next day or two,
which should cause the depression to turn westward. As the vortex
weakens and becomes more shallow, it should slow in forward speed
and drift west-southwestward. The NHC track forecast is near the
middle of the guidance envelope, close to the model consensus aids.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 13/2100Z 18.0N 111.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 18.3N 112.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 18.6N 113.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 18.5N 114.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 18.2N 114.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 16/0600Z 17.9N 115.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Bucci/Brown
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