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Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102022
300 PM MDT Sat Aug 13 2022

Recent scatterometer data indicated that the circulation associated 
with the low pressure area that NHC has been tracking over the 
previous few days has become better defined within the past 24 
hours.  Although convection is limited to the western portion of 
the circulation, the system has had sufficient organized and 
persistent thunderstorm activity to be classified as a tropical 
depression.  The initial wind speed is set at 30 kt and is based on 
a blend of the satellite-derived surface wind speeds and the Dvorak 
classifications from SAB and TAFB.

The depression is not expected to strengthen and be a rather 
short-lived tropical cyclone.  The system is currently within an 
area of modest northeasterly shear and the upper-level winds are 
forecast to increase within the next 24 hours.  Although the 
forecast does not explicitly call for the system to become a 
tropical storm, it could strengthen slightly within the next 12-24 
hours.  After that time frame, the vertical wind shear is predicted 
to increase and limit any further intensification.  The official 
forecast shows the depression becoming a remnant low by 48 hours.

The system is moving west-northwestward at 9 kt around the 
southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge over northwestern Mexico. 
The ridge is forecast to build westward over the next day or two, 
which should cause the depression to turn westward.  As the vortex 
weakens and becomes more shallow, it should slow in forward speed 
and drift west-southwestward.  The NHC track forecast is near the 
middle of the guidance envelope, close to the model consensus aids.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  13/2100Z 18.0N 111.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  14/0600Z 18.3N 112.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  14/1800Z 18.6N 113.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  15/0600Z 18.5N 114.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  15/1800Z 18.2N 114.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  16/0600Z 17.9N 115.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  16/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci/Brown
 
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