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Tropical Storm Howard Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022
200 AM PDT Wed Aug 10 2022
Deep convection in the northern semicircle has continued to slowly
decrease in depth and coverage while Howard moves over cooler
waters. As a result, the objective and subjective satellite
intensity estimates have reduced and the initial intensity estimate
has been lower to 55 kt. Steady weakening is expected to continue
as the cyclone approaches sea surface temperatures cooler than 24
degrees C and moves into an increasingly dry and stable environment.
These oceanic and atmospheric factors should cause Howard to
degenerate into a remnant low in about a day and a half. The
official forecast is similar to the previous advisory and now shows
Howard becoming a post-tropical cyclone in 24 hours.
The tropical storm is moving northwestward at about 9 kt around a
subtropical ridge. Howard is expected to turn west-northwestward
later today followed by westward on Thursday when the weaker, more
shallow vortex is steered by the low-level flow. The NHC track
forecast is very similar to the previous official prediction and
close to model consensus guidance.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/0900Z 23.5N 119.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 23.9N 120.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 24.4N 122.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 11/1800Z 24.8N 123.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 12/0600Z 24.9N 125.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 12/1800Z 24.9N 126.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Bucci/Beven
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