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Tropical Storm Howard Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092022
200 AM PDT Wed Aug 10 2022
 
Deep convection in the northern semicircle has continued to slowly 
decrease in depth and coverage while Howard moves over cooler 
waters.  As a result, the objective and subjective satellite 
intensity estimates have reduced and the initial intensity estimate 
has been lower to 55 kt.  Steady weakening is expected to continue 
as the cyclone approaches sea surface temperatures cooler than 24 
degrees C and moves into an increasingly dry and stable environment. 
These oceanic and atmospheric factors should cause Howard to 
degenerate into a remnant low in about a day and a half.  The 
official forecast is similar to the previous advisory and now shows 
Howard becoming a post-tropical cyclone in 24 hours.

The tropical storm is moving northwestward at about 9 kt around a 
subtropical ridge.  Howard is expected to turn west-northwestward 
later today followed by westward on Thursday when the weaker, more 
shallow vortex is steered by the low-level flow.  The NHC track 
forecast is very similar to the previous official prediction and 
close to model consensus guidance.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/0900Z 23.5N 119.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  10/1800Z 23.9N 120.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  11/0600Z 24.4N 122.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  11/1800Z 24.8N 123.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  12/0600Z 24.9N 125.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  12/1800Z 24.9N 126.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  13/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci/Beven
 
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