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Tropical Storm Howard Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022
300 AM MDT Mon Aug 08 2022
Howard appears to be continuing its strengthening trend. A
scatterometer pass at 0507 UTC revealed surface wind speeds peaking
around 40 kts in the northern semicircle of the circulation. The
satellite data also revealed the tropical storm to be quite a bit
smaller than originally estimated. Subjective Dvorak estimates from
TAFB and SAB both support an intensity of 45 kt. Given the
potential for the scatterometer to under sample winds in a smaller
storm, the initial intensity has been increased to matched the
Dvorak estimates.
The window for additional potential strengthening is growing
shorter. SHIPS model guidance indicates Howard should move over
the 26 degree Celsius sea surface isotherm in about 24 hours. The
global models forecast the vertical wind shear to increase and the
surrounding environmental relative humidities to decrease. The
combination of these oceanic and atmospheric conditions should
induce a weakening trend. The official forecast predicts
Howard to plateau in intensity at 50 kt and become post-tropical
by 60 hours.
The reasoning behind the track forecast is unchanged. The tropical
storm is moving northwestward at 12 kt on the southwest periphery
of a mid-level ridge. When Howard weakens, the cyclone is expected
to turn westward in the low-level tradewind flow. The updated
track forecast is very similar to the previous prediction and
remains close to the model consensus aids.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/0900Z 19.2N 112.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 20.4N 113.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 21.7N 115.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 22.8N 117.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 23.6N 119.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 10/1800Z 24.3N 120.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 11/0600Z 24.6N 122.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/0600Z 24.6N 125.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/0600Z 24.0N 128.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Bucci/Brown
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