ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Howard Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022 300 AM MDT Mon Aug 08 2022 Howard appears to be continuing its strengthening trend. A scatterometer pass at 0507 UTC revealed surface wind speeds peaking around 40 kts in the northern semicircle of the circulation. The satellite data also revealed the tropical storm to be quite a bit smaller than originally estimated. Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB both support an intensity of 45 kt. Given the potential for the scatterometer to under sample winds in a smaller storm, the initial intensity has been increased to matched the Dvorak estimates. The window for additional potential strengthening is growing shorter. SHIPS model guidance indicates Howard should move over the 26 degree Celsius sea surface isotherm in about 24 hours. The global models forecast the vertical wind shear to increase and the surrounding environmental relative humidities to decrease. The combination of these oceanic and atmospheric conditions should induce a weakening trend. The official forecast predicts Howard to plateau in intensity at 50 kt and become post-tropical by 60 hours. The reasoning behind the track forecast is unchanged. The tropical storm is moving northwestward at 12 kt on the southwest periphery of a mid-level ridge. When Howard weakens, the cyclone is expected to turn westward in the low-level tradewind flow. The updated track forecast is very similar to the previous prediction and remains close to the model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 19.2N 112.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 20.4N 113.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 21.7N 115.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 22.8N 117.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 23.6N 119.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 10/1800Z 24.3N 120.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 11/0600Z 24.6N 122.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/0600Z 24.6N 125.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/0600Z 24.0N 128.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Bucci/Brown NNNN
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