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Tropical Storm Howard Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092022
900 PM MDT Sun Aug 07 2022
 
The overall appearance of Howard has improved slightly over the past 
several hours, with the center of the cyclone tucked underneath the 
southern edge of a mass of intense deep convection.  The latest 
Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT are 
all in agreement that the system remains a 35-kt tropical storm. 
However, the recent trend in organization suggests some 
strengthening may be soon underway.  An automated weather station on 
Socorro Island this evening measured peak sustained wind speeds of 
36 kt and a gust to 49 kt, while the center of Howard's circulation 
passed about 50 n mi to the south-southwest of that location.
 
Howard continues its northwestern heading, or 315/11 kt to the
southwest of a mid-level ridge. This motion is expected to continue
over the next couple of days.  After 48 h, the cyclone is expected
to turn toward the west as the weakening system becomes steered
by the large-scale low-level flow.  The latest NHC track forecast
is little changed from the previous one and is near the tightly
clustered track guidance.
 
The storm has about 36-48 h to take advantage of warm SSTs, a moist 
atmospheric environment, and weak vertical wind shear.  After that 
time the forecast path of the cyclone takes it over progressively 
cooler waters and into a much drier and more stable airmass.  The 
NHC forecast calls for some modest strengthening through 36 h, then 
steady weakening commencing after that time.  The forecast also 
indicates that the system will degenerate into a remnant low by 96h. 
However, the both the CMC and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery 
suggest that this could occur as soon as 60 h from now.  The NHC 
intensity forecast is slightly higher than the various multi-model 
consensus solutions, and lower than the HWRF and GFS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/0300Z 18.4N 111.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  08/1200Z 19.6N 112.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  09/0000Z 21.2N 114.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  09/1200Z 22.4N 116.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  10/0000Z 23.3N 118.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  10/1200Z 24.0N 119.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  11/0000Z 24.5N 121.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  12/0000Z 24.5N 124.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  13/0000Z 24.0N 126.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
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Forecaster Latto
 
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