ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Howard Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022 900 PM MDT Sun Aug 07 2022 The overall appearance of Howard has improved slightly over the past several hours, with the center of the cyclone tucked underneath the southern edge of a mass of intense deep convection. The latest Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT are all in agreement that the system remains a 35-kt tropical storm. However, the recent trend in organization suggests some strengthening may be soon underway. An automated weather station on Socorro Island this evening measured peak sustained wind speeds of 36 kt and a gust to 49 kt, while the center of Howard's circulation passed about 50 n mi to the south-southwest of that location. Howard continues its northwestern heading, or 315/11 kt to the southwest of a mid-level ridge. This motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days. After 48 h, the cyclone is expected to turn toward the west as the weakening system becomes steered by the large-scale low-level flow. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one and is near the tightly clustered track guidance. The storm has about 36-48 h to take advantage of warm SSTs, a moist atmospheric environment, and weak vertical wind shear. After that time the forecast path of the cyclone takes it over progressively cooler waters and into a much drier and more stable airmass. The NHC forecast calls for some modest strengthening through 36 h, then steady weakening commencing after that time. The forecast also indicates that the system will degenerate into a remnant low by 96h. However, the both the CMC and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery suggest that this could occur as soon as 60 h from now. The NHC intensity forecast is slightly higher than the various multi-model consensus solutions, and lower than the HWRF and GFS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 18.4N 111.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 19.6N 112.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 21.2N 114.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 22.4N 116.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 23.3N 118.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 10/1200Z 24.0N 119.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 24.5N 121.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 12/0000Z 24.5N 124.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/0000Z 24.0N 126.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto NNNN
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