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Tropical Storm Howard Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022
900 PM MDT Sun Aug 07 2022
The overall appearance of Howard has improved slightly over the past
several hours, with the center of the cyclone tucked underneath the
southern edge of a mass of intense deep convection. The latest
Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT are
all in agreement that the system remains a 35-kt tropical storm.
However, the recent trend in organization suggests some
strengthening may be soon underway. An automated weather station on
Socorro Island this evening measured peak sustained wind speeds of
36 kt and a gust to 49 kt, while the center of Howard's circulation
passed about 50 n mi to the south-southwest of that location.
Howard continues its northwestern heading, or 315/11 kt to the
southwest of a mid-level ridge. This motion is expected to continue
over the next couple of days. After 48 h, the cyclone is expected
to turn toward the west as the weakening system becomes steered
by the large-scale low-level flow. The latest NHC track forecast
is little changed from the previous one and is near the tightly
clustered track guidance.
The storm has about 36-48 h to take advantage of warm SSTs, a moist
atmospheric environment, and weak vertical wind shear. After that
time the forecast path of the cyclone takes it over progressively
cooler waters and into a much drier and more stable airmass. The
NHC forecast calls for some modest strengthening through 36 h, then
steady weakening commencing after that time. The forecast also
indicates that the system will degenerate into a remnant low by 96h.
However, the both the CMC and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery
suggest that this could occur as soon as 60 h from now. The NHC
intensity forecast is slightly higher than the various multi-model
consensus solutions, and lower than the HWRF and GFS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/0300Z 18.4N 111.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 19.6N 112.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 21.2N 114.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 22.4N 116.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 23.3N 118.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 10/1200Z 24.0N 119.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 24.5N 121.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 24.5N 124.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/0000Z 24.0N 126.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Latto
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