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Tropical Storm Georgette Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
800 PM PDT Sat Jul 30 2022
Georgette has looked a little less organized during the past few
hours. Cloud tops associated with its deep convection have warmed,
and its banding features appear to be less defined than they were
earlier today. It's unclear if this is a sign of imminent weakening
or just a reflection of diurnal fluctuations of the tropical
storm's convection. Satellite intensity estimates vary from 30 kt
to 50 kt. The NHC intensity estimate will remain 45 kt for now,
which is notably the same as the TAFB Dvorak assessment.
No changes of note were made to any aspect of the NHC forecast for
Georgette with this advisory. Unfortunately, the track component of
the forecast is still of very low confidence. The small tropical
storm should continue moving generally west-southwestward to
westward for the next day or so. By early Monday, a breakdown of
steering currents should cause the tropical cyclone to take on a
slow meandering motion. The much larger Hurricane Frank is forecast
to move north of Georgette on Sunday and Monday, which could
contribute to a slow eastward drift for Georgette. The GFS is one
example of this scenario, however the ECMWF shows no such eastward
movement, while other models fall between those two solutions. As a
result, even though all models indicate that Georgette will begin
drifting northward early next week, the model spread is quite high.
The NHC track forecast is just a touch west of the previous advisory
at most forecast times beyond 24 h, but is a little east of the
multi-model consensus at most forecast times.
The intensity forecast is more certain. Georgette's current marginal
environment is not likely to change substantially, which
should cause it to slowly weaken through early next week. The
intensity model spread is very low, increasing confidence in this
part of the forecast. NHC's updated intensity forecast is near the
middle of the small guidance envelope, closest to the multi-model
consensus.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 31/0300Z 13.4N 128.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 31/1200Z 13.2N 129.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 13.1N 130.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 13.2N 130.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 13.5N 130.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 02/1200Z 14.1N 129.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 14.9N 129.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 16.0N 129.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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