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Tropical Storm Georgette Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082022
800 PM PDT Sat Jul 30 2022
 
Georgette has looked a little less organized during the past few 
hours. Cloud tops associated with its deep convection have warmed, 
and its banding features appear to be less defined than they were 
earlier today. It's unclear if this is a sign of imminent weakening 
or just a reflection of diurnal fluctuations of the tropical 
storm's convection. Satellite intensity estimates vary from 30 kt 
to 50 kt. The NHC intensity estimate will remain 45 kt for now, 
which is notably the same as the TAFB Dvorak assessment.
 
No changes of note were made to any aspect of the NHC forecast for 
Georgette with this advisory. Unfortunately, the track component of 
the forecast is still of very low confidence.  The small tropical 
storm should continue moving generally west-southwestward to 
westward for the next day or so. By early Monday, a breakdown of 
steering currents should cause the tropical cyclone to take on a 
slow meandering motion. The much larger Hurricane Frank is forecast 
to move north of Georgette on Sunday and Monday, which could 
contribute to a slow eastward drift for Georgette. The GFS is one 
example of this scenario, however the ECMWF shows no such eastward 
movement, while other models fall between those two solutions. As a 
result, even though all models indicate that Georgette will begin 
drifting northward early next week, the model spread is quite high. 
The NHC track forecast is just a touch west of the previous advisory 
at most forecast times beyond 24 h, but is a little east of the 
multi-model consensus at most forecast times.
 
The intensity forecast is more certain. Georgette's current marginal
environment is not likely to change substantially, which
should cause it to slowly weaken through early next week.  The
intensity model spread is very low, increasing confidence in this
part of the forecast. NHC's updated intensity forecast is near the
middle of the small guidance envelope, closest to the multi-model
consensus.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  31/0300Z 13.4N 128.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  31/1200Z 13.2N 129.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  01/0000Z 13.1N 130.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  01/1200Z 13.2N 130.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  02/0000Z 13.5N 130.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  02/1200Z 14.1N 129.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  03/0000Z 14.9N 129.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  04/0000Z 16.0N 129.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  05/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
 
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