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Tropical Storm Frank Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
900 AM MDT Thu Jul 28 2022
Conventional satellite imagery this morning suggests that the
northeasterly shear over Frank is diminishing, with some cirrus
outflow developing in the northeastern quadrant. However, SSM/IS
microwave overpasses at 1144 and 1234 UTC show that the storm has
not yet become better organized, as the center is still located to
the northeast of the main convective bands. Various satellite
intensity estimates range from 35-55 kt, and given the unchanged
organization the initial intensity is held at 45 kt.
A further reduction in the shear appears likely later today, which
along with sea surface temperatures of 28-29C, should allow steady
to possible rapid strengthening through the 60 h point. The new
intensity forecast continues to call for a peak intensity of 90 kt,
and this is at the upper edge of the intensity guidance. After
60 h, while the shear is forecast to remain light, the cyclone
should move over steadily decreasing SSTs, reaching 21C water by
120 h. This should cause a steady to rapid weakening. This part
of the intensity forecast has been adjusted downward and it lies
near the intensity consensus aids.
Frank continues to move westward with the initial motion 280/11 kt.
The track forecast reasoning is again unchanged from the previous
advisory. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected during the
next 12-24 h, followed by a northwestward motion as the cyclone
heads for a break in the subtropical ridge produced by mid- to
upper-level troughing over the northeastern Pacific. The track
guidance remains in good agreement, but it has again shifted just
a little to the north after about 36 h. Thus, the new track
forecast is nudged a little northward during that time.
It should be noted that Frank and Tropical Storm Georgette are
likely to come close enough to one another to interact. The global
models still suggest that Frank will be the larger and dominant
system during this interaction, and that Georgette will have only
minor impacts on the track and intensity of Frank.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/1500Z 13.2N 110.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 13.6N 111.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 14.4N 112.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 15.5N 114.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 16.7N 116.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 31/0000Z 17.9N 118.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 31/1200Z 19.1N 120.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 21.5N 123.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 02/1200Z 23.5N 126.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
$$
Forecaster Beven
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