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Tropical Storm Frank Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072022
900 AM MDT Thu Jul 28 2022

Conventional satellite imagery this morning suggests that the  
northeasterly shear over Frank is diminishing, with some cirrus 
outflow developing in the northeastern quadrant.  However, SSM/IS 
microwave overpasses at 1144 and 1234 UTC show that the storm has 
not yet become better organized, as the center is still located to 
the northeast of the main convective bands.  Various satellite 
intensity estimates range from 35-55 kt, and given the unchanged 
organization the initial intensity is held at 45 kt.

A further reduction in the shear appears likely later today, which
along with sea surface temperatures of 28-29C, should allow steady 
to possible rapid strengthening through the 60 h point.  The new 
intensity forecast continues to call for a peak intensity of 90 kt, 
and this is at the upper edge of the intensity guidance.  After   
60 h, while the shear is forecast to remain light, the cyclone 
should move over steadily decreasing SSTs, reaching 21C water by  
120 h.  This should cause a steady to rapid weakening.  This part 
of the intensity forecast has been adjusted downward and it lies 
near the intensity consensus aids.

Frank continues to move westward with the initial motion 280/11 kt.
The track forecast reasoning is again unchanged from the previous 
advisory.  A turn toward the west-northwest is expected during the 
next 12-24 h, followed by a northwestward motion as the cyclone 
heads for a break in the subtropical ridge produced by mid- to 
upper-level troughing over the northeastern Pacific.  The track 
guidance remains in good agreement, but it has again shifted just 
a little to the north after about 36 h.  Thus, the new track 
forecast is nudged a little northward during that time.
 
It should be noted that Frank and Tropical Storm Georgette are
likely to come close enough to one another to interact.  The global
models still suggest that Frank will be the larger and dominant
system during this interaction, and that Georgette will have only
minor impacts on the track and intensity of Frank.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/1500Z 13.2N 110.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  29/0000Z 13.6N 111.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  29/1200Z 14.4N 112.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  30/0000Z 15.5N 114.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  30/1200Z 16.7N 116.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  31/0000Z 17.9N 118.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  31/1200Z 19.1N 120.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  01/1200Z 21.5N 123.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  02/1200Z 23.5N 126.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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