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Tropical Storm Frank Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
1000 PM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022
Frank continues to form deep convective bursts near and west of the
estimated center, with cloud tops colder than -80 degrees C.
However, satellite imagery indicates this convection is not
well-organized and the system currently lacks well-defined banding
features. Subjective and objective Dvorak intensity estimates
remain at 35 kt so the there is no change to the advisory
intensity.
Northeasterly shear is inhibiting increased organization and
strengthening of the tropical storm. The shear is associated with a
strong upper-level anticyclone near northwestern Mexico. Global
model guidance predicts that this anticyclone will weaken during the
next couple of days which should result in a relaxation of the
shear. The SHIPS guidance shows the shear decreasing significantly
in 24-36 hours. It also indicates that the other oceanic and
environmental conditions will be conducive for Frank to possibly
strengthen into a hurricane within three days. The official
intensity forecast is similar to the previous prediction and
slightly below the model consensus.
The system is moving westward at 9 kt. Frank should gradually turn
to the west-northwest over the next several days as it moves along
the periphery of a mid-level ridge to the north. A more
northwestward motion is likely in 4-5 days as the cyclone nears the
western edge of the ridge. A potential complication to the track
forecast is the possible influence of a disturbance about 600 n mi
to the west-northwest of Frank. The NHC track prediction is close
to the latest model consensus aid, HCCA, and similar to the previous
advisory forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/0300Z 11.7N 104.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 12.1N 105.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 12.5N 107.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 12.9N 109.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 13.3N 111.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 29/1200Z 13.9N 113.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 30/0000Z 14.5N 115.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 31/0000Z 16.5N 118.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 01/0000Z 18.9N 121.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci
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