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Tropical Storm Frank Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072022
1000 PM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022
 
Frank continues to form deep convective bursts near and west of the 
estimated center, with cloud tops colder than -80 degrees C.  
However, satellite imagery indicates this convection is not 
well-organized and the system currently lacks well-defined banding 
features.  Subjective and objective Dvorak intensity estimates 
remain at 35 kt so the there is no change to the advisory 
intensity.  

Northeasterly shear is inhibiting increased organization and 
strengthening of the tropical storm.  The shear is associated with a 
strong upper-level anticyclone near northwestern Mexico.  Global 
model guidance predicts that this anticyclone will weaken during the 
next couple of days which should result in a relaxation of the 
shear.  The SHIPS guidance shows the shear decreasing significantly 
in 24-36 hours.  It also indicates that the other oceanic and 
environmental conditions will be conducive for Frank to possibly 
strengthen into a hurricane within three days.  The official 
intensity forecast is similar to the previous prediction and 
slightly below the model consensus.

The system is moving westward at 9 kt.  Frank should gradually turn 
to the west-northwest over the next several days as it moves along 
the periphery of a mid-level ridge to the north.  A more 
northwestward motion is likely in 4-5 days as the cyclone nears the 
western edge of the ridge.  A potential complication to the track 
forecast is the possible influence of a disturbance about 600 n mi 
to the west-northwest of Frank.  The NHC track prediction is close 
to the latest model consensus aid, HCCA, and similar to the previous 
advisory forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/0300Z 11.7N 104.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  27/1200Z 12.1N 105.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  28/0000Z 12.5N 107.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  28/1200Z 12.9N 109.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  29/0000Z 13.3N 111.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  29/1200Z 13.9N 113.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  30/0000Z 14.5N 115.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  31/0000Z 16.5N 118.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  01/0000Z 18.9N 121.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci
 
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