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Tropical Storm Estelle Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
200 PM PDT Wed Jul 20 2022
Small bursts of convection continue near and over the center of
Estelle, but this convection is not especially deep with coldest
cloud tops of around -50 to -55 degrees C. A recent scatterometer
pass over the center showed surface winds not exceeding 40 kt. To
account for undersampling, the initial intensity estimate is only
reduced to 45 kt. This is also consistent with the Dvorak current
intensity estimate from TAFB. The scatterometer data also revealed
that tropical-storm-force winds are only occurring over the northern
semicircle of the cyclone. Estelle is currently over sea surface
temperatures of around 23 degrees C. The storm is expected to be
over even cooler waters within a day, likely inhibiting convection.
The official forecast shows Estelle becoming a post-tropical remnant
low within a day and dissipated within 72 hours.
Estelle is moving west-northwestward at a slightly faster 13 kt.
However, the tightly clustered guidance insists that the cyclone's
forward speed will be decreasing over the next couple of days. A
large mid-level ridge associated with a high pressure system
centered over the southwestern US should continue to steer Estelle
in the same general direction through the forecast period. The NHC
track prediction is a little bit faster than the forecast from the
previous advisory and a little north of the multi-model consensus
aids.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/2100Z 21.6N 122.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 22.0N 123.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 22.5N 125.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 22/0600Z 22.9N 127.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 22/1800Z 23.2N 128.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 23/0600Z 23.4N 129.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci
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