ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Estelle Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022 200 PM PDT Wed Jul 20 2022 Small bursts of convection continue near and over the center of Estelle, but this convection is not especially deep with coldest cloud tops of around -50 to -55 degrees C. A recent scatterometer pass over the center showed surface winds not exceeding 40 kt. To account for undersampling, the initial intensity estimate is only reduced to 45 kt. This is also consistent with the Dvorak current intensity estimate from TAFB. The scatterometer data also revealed that tropical-storm-force winds are only occurring over the northern semicircle of the cyclone. Estelle is currently over sea surface temperatures of around 23 degrees C. The storm is expected to be over even cooler waters within a day, likely inhibiting convection. The official forecast shows Estelle becoming a post-tropical remnant low within a day and dissipated within 72 hours. Estelle is moving west-northwestward at a slightly faster 13 kt. However, the tightly clustered guidance insists that the cyclone's forward speed will be decreasing over the next couple of days. A large mid-level ridge associated with a high pressure system centered over the southwestern US should continue to steer Estelle in the same general direction through the forecast period. The NHC track prediction is a little bit faster than the forecast from the previous advisory and a little north of the multi-model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 21.6N 122.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 22.0N 123.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 22.5N 125.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 22/0600Z 22.9N 127.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 22/1800Z 23.2N 128.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 23/0600Z 23.4N 129.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch/Bucci NNNN
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