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Tropical Storm Estelle Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
300 AM MDT Tue Jul 19 2022
Northerly shear continues to take a toll on Estelle. Its low-level
center appears to be partially exposed in proxy visible satellite
imagery, with its associated deep convection limited in coverage and
confined to the southern and eastern portions of its circulation.
Estelle is no longer a hurricane, and recent ASCAT-B and -C data
showed peak derived winds of 45-50 kt in the northeast quadrant of
the cyclone. After accounting for some undersampling, the initial
intensity of Estelle is lowered to 55 kt for this advisory.
Estelle is expected to continue weakening. Although the deep-layer
shear is likely to diminish within the next 12-24 h, the cyclone
will cross the 26 deg C isotherm later today and move over
progressively cooler SSTs through midweek. The NHC intensity
forecast follows the multi-model consensus and calls for steady
weakening over the next few days. Simulated satellite imagery from
the GFS and ECMWF models indicate the cyclone will struggle to
generate deep, organized convection later this week as it moves into
a drier and more stable airmass. Estelle is forecast to degenerate
into a post-tropical remnant low by Thursday, but it could take a
couple more days for the low to open into a trough and dissipate.
The initial motion of Estelle is westward at 280/11 kt, but it is
expected to turn west-northwestward later today as it moves around
the periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern
United States. This ridge will keep Estelle on a west-northwestward
heading for the next few days. As the cyclone spins down and becomes
more vertically shallow, the low-level trade wind flow should steer
the remnant low more westward on days 4-5. The NHC track forecast is
very similar to the previous one and remains near the HCCA and TVCE
consensus aids.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/0900Z 18.6N 114.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 19.1N 116.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 19.9N 118.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 20/1800Z 20.9N 120.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 21/0600Z 21.7N 123.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 21/1800Z 22.3N 124.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/0600Z 22.7N 126.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/0600Z 23.0N 129.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 24/0600Z 22.7N 132.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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