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Tropical Storm Estelle Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062022
300 AM MDT Tue Jul 19 2022
 
Northerly shear continues to take a toll on Estelle. Its low-level 
center appears to be partially exposed in proxy visible satellite 
imagery, with its associated deep convection limited in coverage and 
confined to the southern and eastern portions of its circulation. 
Estelle is no longer a hurricane, and recent ASCAT-B and -C data 
showed peak derived winds of 45-50 kt in the northeast quadrant of 
the cyclone. After accounting for some undersampling, the initial 
intensity of Estelle is lowered to 55 kt for this advisory.
 
Estelle is expected to continue weakening. Although the deep-layer 
shear is likely to diminish within the next 12-24 h, the cyclone 
will cross the 26 deg C isotherm later today and move over 
progressively cooler SSTs through midweek. The NHC intensity 
forecast follows the multi-model consensus and calls for steady 
weakening over the next few days. Simulated satellite imagery from 
the GFS and ECMWF models indicate the cyclone will struggle to 
generate deep, organized convection later this week as it moves into 
a drier and more stable airmass. Estelle is forecast to degenerate 
into a post-tropical remnant low by Thursday, but it could take a 
couple more days for the low to open into a trough and dissipate.

The initial motion of Estelle is westward at 280/11 kt, but it is 
expected to turn west-northwestward later today as it moves around 
the periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern 
United States. This ridge will keep Estelle on a west-northwestward 
heading for the next few days. As the cyclone spins down and becomes 
more vertically shallow, the low-level trade wind flow should steer 
the remnant low more westward on days 4-5. The NHC track forecast is 
very similar to the previous one and remains near the HCCA and TVCE 
consensus aids.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/0900Z 18.6N 114.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  19/1800Z 19.1N 116.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  20/0600Z 19.9N 118.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  20/1800Z 20.9N 120.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  21/0600Z 21.7N 123.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  21/1800Z 22.3N 124.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  22/0600Z 22.7N 126.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  23/0600Z 23.0N 129.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  24/0600Z 22.7N 132.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 
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