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Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
400 PM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022
SSMIS microwave data received after the release of the previous
advisory showed that the eye of Bonnie became less defined than
overnight. Although the eye is still evident in visible imagery,
it is less distinct in infrared satellite pictures than early
today. The surrounding cloud tops remain quite cold and subjective
Dvorak current intensity (CI) numbers from TAFB and SAB are
unchanged from this morning. As a result, the initial intensity is
held at 100 kt for this advisory.
Moderate northeasterly shear over the cyclone is likely to prevent
additional strengthening and little overall change in intensity is
expected through early Wednesday. After that time, gradually
decreasing sea surface temperatures and lower mid-level humidity is
likely to result in slow weakening. The pace of weakening is
expected to hasten in 60-72 h when Bonnie crosses the 26C isotherm
and moves into a drier and more stable air mass. Steady-to-rapid
weakening is then expected through the remainder of the period and
Bonnie is forecast to become post-tropical by day 5.
Bonnie is moving west-northwestward or 285/13 kt. There continues
to be no change to the track forecast reasoning. A mid-level ridge
to the north of the cyclone should continue to steer Bonnie west to
west-northwestward throughout the entire forecast period. However,
some reduction in forecast speed is forecast during the next day or
two as the ridge weakens slightly. Later in the period, a faster
forward speed is forecast when Bonnie weakens and is steered more
by the low- to mid-level flow. The NHC forecast track is slightly
faster than the previous advisory beyond 72 hours, but remains
in best agreement with the multi-model consensus aids.
Although Bonnie will be moving farther away from the southwestern
coast of Mexico, rough surf and the potential for rip currents will
continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico for
another day or so.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/2100Z 15.5N 105.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 15.9N 107.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 16.3N 109.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 16.8N 111.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 17.4N 114.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 08/0600Z 18.0N 117.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 18.8N 120.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 20.0N 127.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 10/1800Z 20.5N 133.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
$$
Forecaster Brown
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