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Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number  33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042022
400 PM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022
 
SSMIS microwave data received after the release of the previous
advisory showed that the eye of Bonnie became less defined than
overnight.  Although the eye is still evident in visible imagery, 
it is less distinct in infrared satellite pictures than early 
today.  The surrounding cloud tops remain quite cold and subjective 
Dvorak current intensity (CI) numbers from TAFB and SAB are 
unchanged from this morning.  As a result, the initial intensity is 
held at 100 kt for this advisory.

Moderate northeasterly shear over the cyclone is likely to prevent 
additional strengthening and little overall change in intensity is 
expected through early Wednesday.  After that time, gradually 
decreasing sea surface temperatures and lower mid-level humidity is 
likely to result in slow weakening.  The pace of weakening is 
expected to hasten in 60-72 h when Bonnie crosses the 26C isotherm 
and moves into a drier and more stable air mass. Steady-to-rapid 
weakening is then expected through the remainder of the period and 
Bonnie is forecast to become post-tropical by day 5. 

Bonnie is moving west-northwestward or 285/13 kt. There continues 
to be no change to the track forecast reasoning.  A mid-level ridge 
to the north of the cyclone should continue to steer Bonnie west to 
west-northwestward throughout the entire forecast period. However, 
some reduction in forecast speed is forecast during the next day or 
two as the ridge weakens slightly. Later in the period, a faster 
forward speed is forecast when Bonnie weakens and is steered more 
by the low- to mid-level flow.  The NHC forecast track is slightly 
faster than the previous advisory beyond 72 hours, but remains 
in best agreement with the multi-model consensus aids. 
 
Although Bonnie will be moving farther away from the southwestern 
coast of Mexico, rough surf and the potential for rip currents will 
continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico for 
another day or so.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/2100Z 15.5N 105.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  06/0600Z 15.9N 107.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  06/1800Z 16.3N 109.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  07/0600Z 16.8N 111.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  07/1800Z 17.4N 114.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  08/0600Z 18.0N 117.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  08/1800Z 18.8N 120.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  09/1800Z 20.0N 127.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  10/1800Z 20.5N 133.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
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