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Tropical Depression Celia Discussion Number 48
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
800 AM PDT Tue Jun 28 2022
The slow but steady decay of Celia has continued this morning. The
coldest cloud tops near the center of Celia have warmed to around
-40 deg C, a sign that it is no longer producing organized deep
convection. The depression is moving over water colder than 22 deg
C, so further decay is inevitable. It is likely that Celia will
become a post-tropical remnant low later today.
The estimated intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory. Weakening
is likely during the next few days while Celia is steered
west-northwestward by a ridge extending southwest from the
southwestern United States. Various dynamical models indicate that
Celia will dissipate into a trough in about 2-3 days. No changes of
note were made to the NHC forecast, which is near the multi-model
consensus for both track and intensity.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/1500Z 22.3N 120.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 23.0N 121.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 29/1200Z 23.7N 123.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 30/0000Z 24.2N 125.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 30/1200Z 24.6N 126.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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