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Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 46
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
800 PM PDT Mon Jun 27 2022
Celia's satellite appearance has changed little during the past
several hours. Its center was partially exposed in the last visible
satellite images of the day, but it appears the center has moved a
bit closer to a curved band of convection that wraps around the
northwestern portion of its circulation. Based on earlier
scatterometer data and consensus T2.5/35 kt Dvorak classifications
from SAB and TAFB, the initial intensity remains 35 kt.
The cyclone remains on a west-northwestward heading (290/9 kt). A
steering ridge to the north of Celia should keep the cyclone moving
west-northwestward for the next couple of days. The track guidance
remains tightly clustered, and the official NHC forecast is very
close to the previous one. This forecast track brings Celia into a
more stable environment and over cooler waters, which will cause the
cyclone to struggle to maintain its convective organization.
Model-simulated satellite imagery suggests Celia will lose all
convection within the next 12-24 h, and the official NHC forecast
calls for degeneration into a post-tropical remnant low by late
Tuesday and continued weakening through midweek. The remnant low
should open into a trough and dissipate by early Thursday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/0300Z 21.3N 118.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 22.0N 120.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 22.7N 122.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 29/1200Z 23.3N 124.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 30/0000Z 23.8N 125.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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