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Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number  46
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032022
800 PM PDT Mon Jun 27 2022
 
Celia's satellite appearance has changed little during the past 
several hours. Its center was partially exposed in the last visible 
satellite images of the day, but it appears the center has moved a 
bit closer to a curved band of convection that wraps around the 
northwestern portion of its circulation. Based on earlier 
scatterometer data and consensus T2.5/35 kt Dvorak classifications 
from SAB and TAFB, the initial intensity remains 35 kt.

The cyclone remains on a west-northwestward heading (290/9 kt). A 
steering ridge to the north of Celia should keep the cyclone moving 
west-northwestward for the next couple of days. The track guidance 
remains tightly clustered, and the official NHC forecast is very 
close to the previous one. This forecast track brings Celia into a 
more stable environment and over cooler waters, which will cause the 
cyclone to struggle to maintain its convective organization. 
Model-simulated satellite imagery suggests Celia will lose all 
convection within the next 12-24 h, and the official NHC forecast 
calls for degeneration into a post-tropical remnant low by late 
Tuesday and continued weakening through midweek. The remnant low 
should open into a trough and dissipate by early Thursday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/0300Z 21.3N 118.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  28/1200Z 22.0N 120.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  29/0000Z 22.7N 122.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  29/1200Z 23.3N 124.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  30/0000Z 23.8N 125.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  30/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 
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