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Tropical Storm Blas Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
300 AM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022
Blas remains a sheared tropical cyclone, with deep convection
restricted to the eastern half of the system's circulation. The
tropical storm is maintaining its limited convection for the moment
despite having moved over marginally cool sea surface temperatures
below 26 deg C. The initial intensity of 40 kt is based on an
average of Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Blas should slowly
weaken during the next few days as it continues to move through a
dry and stable surrounding environment and over marginal SSTs. The
official forecast shows Blas becoming a remnant low in about 36 h
and dissipating during the middle of the week.
Blas is moving slowly toward the west-northwest (295/4 kt). As the
tropical storm weakens, it should be steered westward by
low-level trade wind flow for the next couple of days. Very little
change was made to NHC official track forecast, which is near the
middle of the global deterministic model forecasts.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/0900Z 18.8N 112.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 18.9N 112.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 18.9N 113.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 20/1800Z 18.9N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 21/0600Z 18.9N 116.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 21/1800Z 19.0N 117.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/0600Z 19.0N 118.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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