ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Blas Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022 300 AM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022 Blas remains a sheared tropical cyclone, with deep convection restricted to the eastern half of the system's circulation. The tropical storm is maintaining its limited convection for the moment despite having moved over marginally cool sea surface temperatures below 26 deg C. The initial intensity of 40 kt is based on an average of Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Blas should slowly weaken during the next few days as it continues to move through a dry and stable surrounding environment and over marginal SSTs. The official forecast shows Blas becoming a remnant low in about 36 h and dissipating during the middle of the week. Blas is moving slowly toward the west-northwest (295/4 kt). As the tropical storm weakens, it should be steered westward by low-level trade wind flow for the next couple of days. Very little change was made to NHC official track forecast, which is near the middle of the global deterministic model forecasts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 18.8N 112.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 18.9N 112.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 18.9N 113.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 18.9N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 21/0600Z 18.9N 116.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 21/1800Z 19.0N 117.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 22/0600Z 19.0N 118.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky NNNN
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