ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Storm Blas Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
900 PM MDT Sat Jun 18 2022
The convection associated with Blas has increased some during the
past several hours, mostly in a band in the southeasteastern
quadrant of the storm. The initial wind speed is kept at 45 kt, on
the higher side of the recent Dvorak estimates in deference to the
marginally improved satellite presentation. A combination of cool
SSTs, dry mid-level air and decreasing atmospheric instability
should cause a general weakening of Blas during the next day or two.
The storm is expected to become a tropical depression by Monday and
degenerate into a remnant area of low pressure by Monday evening.
No significant changes were made to the last NHC intensity forecast.
Blas has turned more to the west-northwest tonight or 300/4 kt.
The cyclone should move slowly in that direction overnight and then
more westward tomorrow in light low-level trades. Model guidance
is in very good agreement, and only cosmetic changes were made to
the previous NHC track foreast. The remnants of Blas should open up
into a surface trough in 3 or 4 days.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/0300Z 18.7N 111.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 18.9N 112.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 18.9N 113.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 18.8N 114.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 21/0000Z 18.8N 115.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 21/1200Z 18.9N 116.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/0000Z 19.0N 117.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW