ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Blas Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022 900 PM MDT Sat Jun 18 2022 The convection associated with Blas has increased some during the past several hours, mostly in a band in the southeasteastern quadrant of the storm. The initial wind speed is kept at 45 kt, on the higher side of the recent Dvorak estimates in deference to the marginally improved satellite presentation. A combination of cool SSTs, dry mid-level air and decreasing atmospheric instability should cause a general weakening of Blas during the next day or two. The storm is expected to become a tropical depression by Monday and degenerate into a remnant area of low pressure by Monday evening. No significant changes were made to the last NHC intensity forecast. Blas has turned more to the west-northwest tonight or 300/4 kt. The cyclone should move slowly in that direction overnight and then more westward tomorrow in light low-level trades. Model guidance is in very good agreement, and only cosmetic changes were made to the previous NHC track foreast. The remnants of Blas should open up into a surface trough in 3 or 4 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 18.7N 111.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 18.9N 112.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 18.9N 113.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 18.8N 114.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 18.8N 115.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 21/1200Z 18.9N 116.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 22/0000Z 19.0N 117.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake NNNN
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