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Tropical Storm Blas Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
1000 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022
Tropical Storm Blas has maintained a well-defined structure this
evening, with satellite images indicating prominent convective
banding. Deep convection has also significantly increased near the
circulation center during the past few hours, suggesting that an
increase in the storm's intensity is imminent. At this time, Dvorak
T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB remain at 3.0, so the initial
intensity is held at 45 kt for this advisory.
Blas is expected to strengthen during the next couple of days, as
the large-scale environment is forecast to remain conducive for
continued development. The cyclone is forecast to reach hurricane
strength tomorrow while remaining offshore of southwestern Mexico.
Later in the week, easterly shear is expected to increase in
association with an upper-level anticyclone building over Mexico,
and Blas will begin to traverse cooler waters. These large-scale
factors are expected to result in Blas weakening by this
weekend. The intensity forecast is higher than the consensus aids
and lower than HWRF, in line with the prior NHC forecast.
The initial motion is slightly west of north, or 350/4 kt, and Blas
is forecast to turn leftward and accelerate northwestward in the
next 12-24 hours followed by a west-northwestward motion. A
west-northwestward motion on the south side of a mid-level
ridge should continue into the weekend. The official track
forecast is very close to the prior NHC prediction and in good
agreement with the consensus track aids.
While Blas is expected to remain off the coast of Mexico, the
associated swells are expected to affect portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico starting tonight.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/0300Z 15.3N 102.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 15.4N 102.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 15.7N 103.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 16.2N 104.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 16.8N 106.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 17/1200Z 17.4N 108.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 17.9N 110.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 19/0000Z 18.8N 112.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 20/0000Z 19.2N 114.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
$$
Forecaster Pasch/Hogsett
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