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Tropical Storm Blas Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022022
1000 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022
 
Tropical Storm Blas has maintained a well-defined structure this 
evening, with satellite images indicating prominent convective 
banding. Deep convection has also significantly increased near the 
circulation center during the past few hours, suggesting that an 
increase in the storm's intensity is imminent. At this time, Dvorak 
T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB remain at 3.0, so the initial 
intensity is held at 45 kt for this advisory. 

Blas is expected to strengthen during the next couple  of days, as 
the large-scale environment is forecast to remain conducive for 
continued development. The cyclone is forecast to reach hurricane 
strength tomorrow while remaining offshore of southwestern Mexico. 
Later in the week, easterly shear is expected to increase in 
association with an upper-level anticyclone building over Mexico, 
and Blas will begin to traverse cooler waters. These large-scale 
factors are expected to result in Blas weakening by this 
weekend.  The intensity forecast is higher than the consensus aids 
and lower than HWRF, in line with the prior NHC forecast. 

The initial motion is slightly west of north, or 350/4 kt, and Blas 
is forecast to turn leftward and accelerate northwestward in the 
next 12-24 hours followed by a west-northwestward motion. A 
west-northwestward motion on the south side of a mid-level 
ridge should continue into the weekend. The official track 
forecast is very close to the prior NHC prediction and in good 
agreement with the consensus track aids. 

While Blas is expected to remain off the coast of Mexico, the 
associated swells are expected to affect portions of the coast of 
southwestern Mexico starting tonight. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/0300Z 15.3N 102.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  15/1200Z 15.4N 102.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  16/0000Z 15.7N 103.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  16/1200Z 16.2N 104.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  17/0000Z 16.8N 106.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  17/1200Z 17.4N 108.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  18/0000Z 17.9N 110.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  19/0000Z 18.8N 112.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  20/0000Z 19.2N 114.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch/Hogsett
 
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