ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022
1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 03 2022
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the circulation associated with the disturbance has become a
little better defined over the Gulf of Mexico north of the
northeastern Yucatan Peninsula, and that the central pressure is
near 1002 mb. However, the associated convection is poorly
organized, with radar data from Cuba and Mexico showing that the
strong convection over the northwestern Caribbean Sea more resembles
a mid-latitude squall line than a tropical cyclone rain band. In
addition, the airplane has yet to report tropical-storm force winds,
although it has not yet sampled the areas of stronger convection.
Based on the current data, the system has not yet become a tropical
storm and will remain a potential tropical cyclone on this advisory.
The initial motion is an uncertain 035/4 kt. The system is about to
encounter the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies, and the
guidance is in good agreement that a faster motion toward the
northeast should begin later today and continue through about 72 h.
Based on this, the forecast track continues to bring the system
across the southern or central Florida Peninsula on Saturday. After
72 h, the system should move east-northeastward across the western
Atlantic. The track guidance is in good agreement with this
scenario, and the new forecast track is little changed from the
previous forecast. It should be noted that due to the poor
organization, there is the possibility of the center re-forming due
to convective bursts, which would cause some erratic motion to
Although 20-30 kt of westerly shear is forecast to continue until
the system reaches Florida, it is likely that convective bursts near
the center will create enough organized convection for the system to
become a tropical storm in the next 12-24 h. This could also cause
slight strengthening before the system reaches Florida. A little
more strengthening is forecast over the Atlantic, due primarily to
interaction with a mid-latitude trough. This interaction will
eventually lead to extratropical transition, which is forecast to be
complete at about 96 h. The new intensity forecast has only minor
tweaks from the previous forecast.
The main impact from this system continues to be widespread heavy
rain that is expected to spread over portions of western Cuba, the
southern Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern
Bahamas during the next couple of days.
1. Heavy rain associated with the system is expected across western
Cuba, where life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are
2. Heavy rain will affect portions of Central Florida, South
Florida, and the Florida Keys today and continue through Saturday.
Considerable flash and urban flooding is possible across South
Florida and in the Keys. Flash and urban flooding is also possible
across the northwestern Bahamas.
3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
western Cuba today and tonight, in Florida tonight and on Saturday,
and in the northwestern Bahamas on Saturday. Tropical storm
conditions are also possible in the watch area in western Cuba
today and tonight.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/1500Z 22.3N 86.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 04/0000Z 23.9N 85.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 04/1200Z 25.8N 82.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 27.7N 79.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 29.7N 76.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 06/0000Z 31.4N 72.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 32.7N 68.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 34.0N 61.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 08/1200Z 35.5N 56.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP