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Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012022
1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 03 2022
 
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate 
that the circulation associated with the disturbance has become a 
little better defined over the Gulf of Mexico north of the 
northeastern Yucatan Peninsula, and that the central pressure is 
near 1002 mb.  However, the associated convection is poorly 
organized, with radar data from Cuba and Mexico showing that the 
strong convection over the northwestern Caribbean Sea more resembles 
a mid-latitude squall line than a tropical cyclone rain band.  In 
addition, the airplane has yet to report tropical-storm force winds, 
although it has not yet sampled the areas of stronger convection.  
Based on the current data, the system has not yet become a tropical 
storm and will remain a potential tropical cyclone on this advisory.
 
The initial motion is an uncertain 035/4 kt.  The system is about to 
encounter the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies, and the 
guidance is in good agreement that a faster motion toward the 
northeast should begin later today and continue through about 72 h. 
Based on this, the forecast track continues to bring the system 
across the southern or central Florida Peninsula on Saturday. After 
72 h, the system should move east-northeastward across the western 
Atlantic.  The track guidance is in good agreement with this 
scenario, and the new forecast track is little changed from the 
previous forecast.  It should be noted that due to the poor 
organization, there is the possibility of the center re-forming due 
to convective bursts, which would cause some erratic motion to 
occur.
 
Although 20-30 kt of westerly shear is forecast to continue until 
the system reaches Florida, it is likely that convective bursts near 
the center will create enough organized convection for the system to 
become a tropical storm in the next 12-24 h.  This could also cause 
slight strengthening before the system reaches Florida. A little 
more strengthening is forecast over the Atlantic, due primarily to 
interaction with a mid-latitude trough.  This interaction will 
eventually lead to extratropical transition, which is forecast to be 
complete at about 96 h.  The new intensity forecast has only minor 
tweaks from the previous forecast.
 
The main impact from this system continues to be widespread heavy 
rain that is expected to spread over portions of western Cuba, the 
southern Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern 
Bahamas during the next couple of days.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Heavy rain associated with the system is expected across western
Cuba, where life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are
possible.
 
2. Heavy rain will affect portions of Central Florida, South
Florida, and the Florida Keys today and continue through Saturday.
Considerable flash and urban flooding is possible across South
Florida and in the Keys.  Flash and urban flooding is also possible
across the northwestern Bahamas.
 
3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
western Cuba today and tonight, in Florida tonight and on Saturday,
and in the northwestern Bahamas on Saturday.  Tropical storm
conditions are also possible in the watch area in western Cuba
today and tonight.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/1500Z 22.3N  86.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  04/0000Z 23.9N  85.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 24H  04/1200Z 25.8N  82.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  05/0000Z 27.7N  79.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  05/1200Z 29.7N  76.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  06/0000Z 31.4N  72.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  06/1200Z 32.7N  68.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  07/1200Z 34.0N  61.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  08/1200Z 35.5N  56.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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