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Tropical Depression Terry Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
700 AM PST Wed Nov 10 2021
Conventional satellite imagery shows that Terry's cloud pattern has
changed little overnight, and the depression remains a poorly
organized tropical cyclone. A fortuitous 1142 UTC SSMIS microwave
pass consisted of fragmented curved bands south and well to the west
of a southwest to northeast elongated surface center. The initial
intensity is held at 25 kt for this advisory.
Dry, stable air intrusion and slightly cooler oceanic sea surface
temperatures should inhibit any further strengthening from
occurring through the forecast period. The large-scale models and
the statistical SHIPS intensity guidance are in agreement with Terry
degenerating into a remnant low by Friday, if not sooner, and
dissipating over the weekend. The official intensity forecast is
basically an update of the previous one, following a compromise of
the aforementioned guidance and the IVCN intensity consensus aid.
Terry's initial motion is still estimated to be 270/13 kt. There is
no change to the track forecast reasoning. Terry is expected to
continue on a westward heading during the next few days within the
low- to mid-level steering flow produced by a subtropical ridge to
the north of the cyclone. The NHC track forecast, once again,
follows the better performing HCCA and TVCE multi-model guidance.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/1500Z 11.7N 116.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 11.6N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 11.4N 121.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 11.2N 124.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 10.9N 127.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 13/0000Z 10.6N 129.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Roberts
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