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Tropical Depression Terry Discussion Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182021
700 AM PST Wed Nov 10 2021
 
Conventional satellite imagery shows that Terry's cloud pattern has 
changed little overnight, and the depression remains a poorly 
organized tropical cyclone.  A fortuitous 1142 UTC SSMIS microwave 
pass consisted of fragmented curved bands south and well to the west 
of a southwest to northeast elongated surface center.  The initial 
intensity is held at 25 kt for this advisory.
 
Dry, stable air intrusion and slightly cooler oceanic sea surface
temperatures should inhibit any further strengthening from
occurring through the forecast period.  The large-scale models and 
the statistical SHIPS intensity guidance are in agreement with Terry 
degenerating into a remnant low by Friday, if not sooner, and 
dissipating over the weekend.  The official intensity forecast is 
basically an update of the previous one, following a compromise of 
the aforementioned guidance and the IVCN intensity consensus aid.
 
Terry's initial motion is still estimated to be 270/13 kt.  There is
no change to the track forecast reasoning.  Terry is expected to
continue on a westward heading during the next few days within the
low- to mid-level steering flow produced by a subtropical ridge to
the north of the cyclone.  The NHC track forecast, once again,
follows the better performing HCCA and TVCE multi-model guidance.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/1500Z 11.7N 116.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  11/0000Z 11.6N 119.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  11/1200Z 11.4N 121.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  12/0000Z 11.2N 124.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  12/1200Z 10.9N 127.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  13/0000Z 10.6N 129.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  13/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts
 
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