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Tropical Depression Terry Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
800 PM MST Tue Nov 09 2021
Terry is exhibiting a bursting convective pattern in geostationary
satellite imagery. Recently, a new burst with infrared cloud tops
colder than -70 deg C has emerged in the western semicircle.
However, AMSR2 microwave data showed that the low-level circulation
is still broad and somewhat elongated. Earlier scatterometer data
indicated the system was a marginal tropical cyclone, with the
strongest winds of around 20 kt located well northeast of the center
and outside of the active convection. The convective organization
has not improved, and the initial intensity is set at 25 kt for this
advisory. Hopefully, new scatterometer data later tonight helps
assess Terry's intensity and status as a tropical cyclone.
A low- to mid-level ridge over the eastern North Pacific is steering
the depression westward, or 280/12 kt. Terry is forecast to move
generally westward for the next several days with little change to
the overall steering pattern expected. The official NHC track
forecast is very similar to the previous advisory, with only minor
adjustments that move Terry slightly faster in agreement with the
latest track consensus aids.
Despite moving over warm (27 deg C) SSTs within a low deep-layer
shear environment, Terry has struggled to sustain organized
convection. This is most likely due to intrusions of dry air that
have periodically disrupted Terry's organization. Most of the global
models show Terry remaining a depression and eventually opening up
into a trough later this week. A notable exception is the GFS, which
indicates some potential for restrengthening by Thursday as the
cyclone moves over slightly warmer waters. The official NHC
intensity forecast keeps Terry a depression through midweek, with
the system degenerating into a remnant low early Friday and a trough
shortly thereafter. This forecast lies on the lower end of the
intensity guidance, and slightly below the IVCN consensus aid.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/0300Z 11.9N 114.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 12.0N 116.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 11.9N 118.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 11.6N 121.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 11.4N 123.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
60H 12/1200Z 11.1N 126.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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