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Tropical Depression Terry Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182021
800 PM MST Tue Nov 09 2021
 
Terry is exhibiting a bursting convective pattern in geostationary 
satellite imagery. Recently, a new burst with infrared cloud tops 
colder than -70 deg C has emerged in the western semicircle. 
However, AMSR2 microwave data showed that the low-level circulation 
is still broad and somewhat elongated. Earlier scatterometer data 
indicated the system was a marginal tropical cyclone, with the 
strongest winds of around 20 kt located well northeast of the center 
and outside of the active convection. The convective organization 
has not improved, and the initial intensity is set at 25 kt for this 
advisory. Hopefully, new scatterometer data later tonight helps 
assess Terry's intensity and status as a tropical cyclone.
 
A low- to mid-level ridge over the eastern North Pacific is steering 
the depression westward, or 280/12 kt. Terry is forecast to move 
generally westward for the next several days with little change to 
the overall steering pattern expected. The official NHC track 
forecast is very similar to the previous advisory, with only minor 
adjustments that move Terry slightly faster in agreement with the 
latest track consensus aids.
 
Despite moving over warm (27 deg C) SSTs within a low deep-layer 
shear environment, Terry has struggled to sustain organized 
convection. This is most likely due to intrusions of dry air that 
have periodically disrupted Terry's organization. Most of the global 
models show Terry remaining a depression and eventually opening up 
into a trough later this week. A notable exception is the GFS, which 
indicates some potential for restrengthening by Thursday as the 
cyclone moves over slightly warmer waters. The official NHC 
intensity forecast keeps Terry a depression through midweek, with 
the system degenerating into a remnant low early Friday and a trough 
shortly thereafter. This forecast lies on the lower end of the 
intensity guidance, and slightly below the IVCN consensus aid.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/0300Z 11.9N 114.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  10/1200Z 12.0N 116.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  11/0000Z 11.9N 118.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  11/1200Z 11.6N 121.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  12/0000Z 11.4N 123.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
 60H  12/1200Z 11.1N 126.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 
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