ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Hurricane Rick Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021
1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021
The center of Rick made landfall a short distance east of Lazaro
Cardenas, Mexico earlier this morning. Since then, visible
satellite images show that the system has continued to move
generally northward over southern Mexico. Assuming that weakening
has occurred after landfall at a rate similar to that given by the
decay-SHIPS model, the current intensity is set at 70 kt. Rick
should weaken rapidly over the mountainous terrain of Mexico, and
although the NHC forecast shows a 24-h point, the global models
suggest that the cyclone could dissipate by that time.
Satellite fixes indicate that Rick is moving just west of due north
at a slightly faster forward speed, or around 350/8 kt. A
low-latitude mid-level ridge to the east of Rick should steer the
cyclone northward to north-northwestward until dissipation occurs
over southwestern Mexico. The official forecast track is based
partly on extrapolation since most of the model trackers lose the
system later today due to dissipation of the low-level circulation.
The updated NHC track forecast is similar to that from the previous
advisory.
Key Messages:
1. Heavy rains associated with Rick will continue to spread across
the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan through tonight, and
could persist through Tuesday. This rainfall will likely produce
dangerous flash flooding and mudslides.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/1500Z 18.6N 102.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 19.7N 103.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 26/1200Z 21.5N 103.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch
NNNN