ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Rick Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021 1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021 The center of Rick made landfall a short distance east of Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico earlier this morning. Since then, visible satellite images show that the system has continued to move generally northward over southern Mexico. Assuming that weakening has occurred after landfall at a rate similar to that given by the decay-SHIPS model, the current intensity is set at 70 kt. Rick should weaken rapidly over the mountainous terrain of Mexico, and although the NHC forecast shows a 24-h point, the global models suggest that the cyclone could dissipate by that time. Satellite fixes indicate that Rick is moving just west of due north at a slightly faster forward speed, or around 350/8 kt. A low-latitude mid-level ridge to the east of Rick should steer the cyclone northward to north-northwestward until dissipation occurs over southwestern Mexico. The official forecast track is based partly on extrapolation since most of the model trackers lose the system later today due to dissipation of the low-level circulation. The updated NHC track forecast is similar to that from the previous advisory. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rains associated with Rick will continue to spread across the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan through tonight, and could persist through Tuesday. This rainfall will likely produce dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 18.6N 102.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 19.7N 103.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 26/1200Z 21.5N 103.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 31-Dec-2021 12:10:12 UTC