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TROPICAL STORM OLAF FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021
1500 UTC FRI SEP 10 2021
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO FROM TODOS
SANTOS TO CABO SAN LAZARO.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO FROM PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO SOUTHWARD
AND AROUND THE PENINSULA TO LORETO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 111.3W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 60SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 45SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 111.3W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 110.9W
FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.5N 112.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 24.6N 113.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 24.3N 114.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 0SE 20SW 20NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 23.4N 115.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 22.4N 117.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 21.6N 118.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 20.7N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 20.0N 123.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.1N 111.3W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 10/1800Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER REINHART
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