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Tropical Depression Guillermo Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072021
800 AM PDT Tue Jul 20 2021
A small burst of convection formed around 12Z, and it's just large
enough to hold on to Guillermo as a 30-kt tropical depression. This
small area of convection is located in the northeastern quadrant,
and it likely won't last long as the cyclone remains embedded in a
very dry and stable air mass and over cool 24 C waters. Guillermo
should degenerate into a remnant low later today, assuming the deep
convection dissipates. The continued influences of dry air and cool
waters should cause the weak system to spin down, and it should
ultimately dissipate in a few days prior to reaching the Central
Pacific basin.
The tropical depression is moving westward at 15 kt. A general
west-southwestward motion is expected during the next few days as
Guillermo, or its remnants, remains embedded in the flow on the
south side of a low- to mid-level ridge. The NHC track forecast is
just a tad to the north of the previous one and lies near the middle
of the guidance envelope.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/1500Z 19.2N 125.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 18.8N 127.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 21/1200Z 18.2N 130.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 22/0000Z 17.5N 132.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 22/1200Z 16.9N 135.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 23/0000Z 16.4N 138.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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